Position:home>Focus on the industry> Pan Shige: Room look forward to in " force of lieutenant general of " of 100 day
Pan Shige: Room look forward to in " force of lieutenant general of " of 100 day
From;  Author:Stand originally

The near future I reach “ ” of 100 days of revulsion this conclusion, have 3 reason: The first, happen in the United States second borrow the crisis to affect international capital market directly; The 2nd, home from tight monetary policy; The 3rd, the fund that developed business to buy the ground to spend last year is too much, into not apply goes out. Since April 25Bankreserve rate will rise again 0.5% , this makes from tight monetary policy more nervous, the capital on the market is fewer.

“ after ” of 100 days of revulsion, the industry adjusts what appear the most possiblyPatternYes: Estate company occurrence become divided, be being told popularly is ” of double season of “ ice fire. This kind of change does not depend on the size of estate company dimensions, basically depend on its financial standing is healthy, indebted rate is high, adjustment way is right. Those indebted rate are particularly high, exceed oneself to repay the enterprise of capacity limits will be the object that in changing this, adjusts.

When economic situation and financial environment are better, if see its net asset value, turnover, land lay in,inspect estate proprietor of an enterprise; But when economic situation and financial environment are bad, the indebted rate that measuring health of an estate company or insalubrious main assessment index is it and repay instantlyLoanability.

After be being adjusted this, I think is to the influence of the market building supply can decrease above all. Because want to form the supply of the house on the market, basically depend on land, money and development business these 3 elements, and come round to look from eye, land and development business are short of, so the supply of the house on prospective market basically depends on “ money ” . During this, company of one part estate may use fund of depreciating means steam again, but have a lot of companies that encircled a lot of land last year especially, the asset of the great majority in their hand is land, is not a house, think low sells a house, at hand also is done not have.

But at the same time, we need to see the market on the other hand, namely demand side, becauseMortgagefrom close, demand also may drop. So, going purely talking about house price do not have any meanings, see the metabolic trend of house price, the most crucial is the supply demand relations that wants backside of price seeing a room, whether can the influence is supplied and the force of demand produce change.

Additional, estate company also is to have regional. The effect that these two cities of Beijing and Shanghai suffer this year won't be very big, because be in Beijing and the estate company that Shanghai develops to have actual strength quite commonly, and the estate company of those national development falls in the circumstance of capital insecurity, also maintain the project of Beijing and Shanghai first surely. And the change of other city wants possibly a few bigger, the estate company of those national development may “ abandons soldier to protect car ” , defer sacrifice even the project of these cities will protect Beijing and Shanghai the project of these big cities, because big city has enough market, yield is higher also.
Previous12 Next